Strategic Equation in Syria and National Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran

While the best friend and worst enemy of Iran is existing in Syria and its neighboring region, the region is important to Iran, first as a shield and a launch pad for resistance and second, as a defending trench against Israeli attacks. Due to its ethno-religious composition as well as geo-political salience, other great powers are interested in this region too.
There exist three major role players in Syria, namely, President Asaad, Hezbollah and Iraqi forces supported by Iran, Salfai block comprising 27 organization like ISIS and finally Syrian Free Army and alike backed by Turkey.
ISIS is a strong group in Syria; however, it has faced a legitimacy challenge and image crisis, so it lacks a sustainable legitimacy.
It is notable that Iran’s concerns are not just limited to Syria and Palestine and according to its strategic requirements Iran should properly pay attention to its alignment with Russia on Asaad’s future, contributing the international coalition in terms of intelligence and finally media activities in the region.
Turkey’s position on Iraq can be understood based on its internal power dynamics, convergence with the USA whereas having divergent views with Europe.
The ISIS social forces are coming from Iraqi nomads who comprise a large part of dissidents; and Baathi elements, Saddam’s intelligence and army members are as the backbone of ISIS. Some talents we witness from ISIS prove its organized performance, leadership and operation capabilities.
While continuation of the crisis in Syria and weakening of Asaad, and prolonged completion with Saudi Arabia in the field of Ideology and energy can lead towards undesired situation for Iran, the circumstances could be even worse if ISIS enters into Baghdad, obtains WMD, shows less violence or Assad toppled. However, some new developments like organization of international coalition, renovation of Iraqi army, public reaction against ISIS along with Turkey and Saudi divergence from ISIS are good signs of change in favor of Iran.