Russia and Turkey Confrontation: Results and Implications

Mohsen Moradian

Although the Turkey’s action to shoot down a Russian fighter jet is a dangerous and provocative behavior, its quick referral to the UN and NATO is a sign of its deep worrisome about the case.
Since the onset of the Russian involvement in the Syrian crisis, it can be predicted that the US and the West would not tolerate Russia, as the latter’s initiative can not only change the Western presumption about management of the crisis, but it would also boost the Russian reputation and prestige in the region and across the world. In fact, Turkey’s behavior was a signal from the West to Russia.
There are Currently 60000 Turkish citizens who are working in Russia and the Turkish construction companies have almost $60 billion worth contracts in Russia. This incident may damage their commercial interests.
If NATO stands with Turkey and supports it in this incident, it may have long term impacts on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. NATO’s full support to Turkey, can weaken Russian position as Iran’s ally and furthermore, it results in strengthening of Turkey and leads it to be the regional power.
Regional stability and management of the crisis is indeed in favor of Iran’s national interests. Furthermore, the Russian sanctions on Turkey’s agricultural products can bring about an opportunity for Iran to enter Russian markets. The same result could be achieved with regard to tourism and many other fields of business like textile and garment, handicrafts, detergents, etc., and Iran could substitute Turkey.