Field and Political Developments in Syria

Amin Partov

Political and military trend of developments related to Syria’s civil war is taking place in a rapid way and in different geographical and political fronts that makes it difficult to sum up.
Syrian army progress which was taking place in a slow way in the light of Russia’s air support in the first quarter of Moscow’s military presence in Syria, suddenly accompanied with impressive victories in Aleppo, Latakia and Daraa from February although significant losses remain as an inevitable feature of these victories.
America has made it clear that Assad’s remaining in power is impossible and m clearly impossible to keep Assad in power and has refused the idea that Assad would be the final military conqueror.
Russia has supported a political solution and declared that its military operation in Syria IS going to destroy ISIS and al Qaeda. However, only less than ten percent of Russian air strikes have taken place against ISIS.
Although Russia spoke of its commitment to an immediate ceasefire, but at the same time has emphasized that the military operation would continue in order to clear important areas and borders from “terrorists”.
Shortage of weaponry, rising casualties and falling into a siege that causes weakness in the long run, are considered as the fundamental difficulty of opponents.
While America promised a cease-fire in late February and Russia proposed a ceasefire from 1st March, Bashar al-Assad announced that military operations would continue throughout the negotiations until opposition groups would be completely removed.
Intensification of Saudi-turkey’s efforts to prevent the destruction of the Syrian opposition would be a consequence of the failure of negotiations.
The important point that should be considered in explaining Saudi and Turkey’s behavior is their mistrust towards the US.
Sudden military intervention of Kurds in the north of Aleppo was the most remarkable field development. The so-called “People’s Protection Units (YPG)” (with Russian air support) attacked and captured the “Minnigh” airport in north of Aleppo controlled by the al-Nusra Front and then moved towards surrounding areas and the City of “Tal Rafat”
Turkey carried out anti-kurds rocket attacks in “Minnigh” and bombarded their positions in east Syria and the Qamishli region. This act faced with a serious opposition from the US and France.
It is estimated that between 300000 to 600000 Syrians would be displaced as a result of this round of conflicts.
It seems that the tensions in the relations of the US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia would rise as the US shows itself eager to cooperate with Russia on Syria and turn the support for Syrian Kurds to one of the pillars of its policy