The Implications of Success or Failure of Iran’s Nuclear Talks

Mahdi Shapouri

Success or failure of the nuclear talks would have various implications at different domestic, regional and international levels for all the actors engaged especially Iran and the USA. Beyond that, future of the Middle East and its security arrangements depends on success or failure of these talks.
Success of the talks will be a great victory for President Obama and the democrats; especially as the EU foreign policy has not been successful over the years. And if the nuclear issue, as one of the big problems of the US foreign policy is settled down, it would be a great success for this country at the regional and global levels.
For Iran, easing pressures and sanctions and muting limitation and isolation policy of the others at the regional and international levels, would be the most important implication and concession if a comprehensive agreement could be reached. If the sanctions and the securitized atmosphere are removed, Iran will have better opportunity at both regional and international levels and then it will have stronger power projection ability.
But if the talks are failed, there would be one option before Iran and it is resuming nuclear activities according to the Geneva Interim Agreement as well as enriching uranium by 20%. Lower level of cooperation between Iran and the IAEA will be another possible said implication.
Many observers believe that the talks will end in a nuclear agreement and so it will have positive implications for Iran. Of course, it doesn’t mean that in case of an agreement, there would be no challenge against Iran. The possible agreement will only prepare some grounds for Iran to go out of the situation and this does not amount to terminating all problems faced by Iran.
As one can understand from the statements of diplomats of 5+1, even if the comprehensive agreement is signed, the so-called Possible Military Dimensions of the Iranian nuclear activities will remain under scrutiny and the Islamic Republic of Iran will have to answer all of the IAEA relevant questions which can bring about problems in implementation of the agreement.
The facts show that the duration of the agreement will not be less than ten years. In this period, it is possible that some events to happen so putting the agreement’s implementation at risk. The Americans and domestic developments in Iran, along with the regional and international relationships could cause emergence of a number of problems and stalemates too.
If the USA concludes that the comprehensive agreement is not realizing its goals, it could choose much more probably not to implement the agreement, because of domestic developments and the Zionists lobbying.
In case of talk’s failure and imposing new sanctions on Iran, prosperity of the country will face a severe problem and all optimisms will change into pessimism. It can also bother the positive atmosphere about reaching the agreement. With new US and its allies (and perhaps the Security Council) sanctions, the economic situation will be deteriorated in Iran and it is probable that the government will face a crisis in terms of traditional and general functioning.
During the past few years, the political actors in Iran have tried to introduce the leadership as the last decision-maker in the field of nuclear issue. They have equalized the political system with the leadership. Therefore, failure of the talks will lead to more psycho-operations of the enemies and the opposition groups and so, dissatisfaction will be directed against the political system and the leadership. In this case, not only the USA will have a stronger inclination to impose more sanctions on Iran, but one should also not ignore the military option, sabotage and terror acts.

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