Brexit and its Implications for the Iranian Interests

Yasser Nooralivand

situations such as an independent Britain from the European Union, EU excluding the Britain as well as scenarios such as a more US oriented Britain, a European Union more independent from the US or the Britain’s mediatory role in the Transatlantic Relations are among possible consequences of the Brexit each of them create opportunities and threats for Iran’s foreign policy with different proportions in the areas such as economic, political and security relations as well as JCPOA.
Some experts believe that with the Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, this country would accelerate the process of lifting international sanctions which should be removed during JCPOA implementation due to the country’s commercial and economic needs in the post-Brexit period and there is no need for the Britain to follow the structure of the EU’s sanctions.
The relative decline of oil revenues and an increase in the rate of the euro might be one of the greatest negative impacts of the decision made by the British people on bilateral relations between Iran and the EU. Logically, a shaky European Union is more preferable to a unified Europe acting unified and integrated against Iran.
It is also possible that Britain’s exit from the EU affect negatively Iran’s economic interests and objectives in the post-JCPOA period. Most of the banks hesitated to invest in Iran before Britain’s exit from the EU and it is expected that Brexit would add to their uncertainty.
Unlike those who believe that the British economic relations will become East-oriented, it seems that the review of Britain’s economic relations with the EU and its 27 members would take at least a decade. So in general, it is possible that the current political uncertainty and instability in the EU would negatively impact better and more rapid JCPOA’S implementation process especially due to the fact that the time and the way of Brexit as well as its financial and economic implications are unclear.
Brexit could also undermine the pro-Atlantic and Pro-US approach and as a result, lead to the creation of a more independent EU free from the domination of the US-UK axis.
It is predicted that with the Brexit, the country’s strategic relations with the US will be stronger than before. Moreover, the strategic US-UK alliance would lead to a stronger unity within the EU based on the Franco-German axis.
The study and evaluation of Britain’s new role as well as its new approaches after leaving the Union on the one hand, and a realistic analysis of the political and economic perspective of the EU without Britain’s presence, on the other hand, is a strategic necessity for Iran’s foreign policy in order to benefit from the new situation in the Europe.
Brexit is against the mainstream of globalization and leads to the development of the right-wing extremists in Europe as well as protectionist policies vis-à-vis national economies.